China’s Electricity Consumption to Increase by 6%, Huge Potential for Power Investment
Yang Kun, executive vice chairman of the China Electricity Council, said at the 2023 Economic Situation and Power Development Analysis and Forecast Meeting on March 24 that with the overall recovery of the country’s economic situation in the post-epidemic period, the electricity consumption of the whole society will have a relatively large increase. increase. The China Electricity Council predicts that the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach about 9.15 trillion kwh this year, the growth rate will exceed 3% in the first quarter, and the annual growth rate will be around 6%.
From January to February, the electricity consumption of the whole society in my country was 1.38 trillion kWh, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. The growth rate was basically close to the growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the overall steady growth trend continued.
The China Electricity Council predicts that in 2023, the overall national power supply and demand will be tightly balanced, and the power supply and demand in some areas will be tight during peak hours. During the peak summer period, the power supply and demand situation in East China, Central China, and Southern regions is tight; during the peak winter period, the power supply and demand situation in East China, Central China, South, and Northwest regions is tight.
According to relevant data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the total global electricity demand in 2022 will increase by 2% year-on-year, and coal-fired power generation will increase by 1.5%. record high.
Yang Kun also mentioned that with the acceleration of the electrification process in various industries, the rapid development of non-traditional power loads has increased volatility and sensitivity. The proportion of new energy installed capacity continued to increase, but failed to form a reliable alternative to power supply, and the security situation of power supply was severe. From the outside of the system, the reasons that affect the safe and stable operation of the power system are more multi-dimensional. The sudden interference of extreme weather is increasing day by day, the degree of electric power informatization and digitization is constantly improving, and non-traditional security such as network security and information security has become an important factor affecting electric power security.
Yang Kun pointed out that my country’s electricity market players need to continue to be cultivated, and the construction of market systems and mechanisms is advancing. However, the construction progress of provincial-level markets varies, and the functions of medium- and long-term, spot, and auxiliary service markets cannot meet the needs of various market players. The connection between the electricity market and the green certificate transaction and the carbon market, the medium and long-term market and the spot market, the inter-provincial market and the provincial market is not enough, and the evaluation and supervision system is relatively lagging. The market environment that guarantees a unified and open electricity market, orderly competition, safety and efficiency, and sound governance needs to be improved, and the legitimate rights and interests of market players need to be further protected.
He said that the current power market is not adaptable to new energy, and the proportion of new energy participating in the market is not high, accounting for about 20% of the country’s new energy power generation, and inter-provincial transactions are the main ones. The capacity value of coal-fired power generation and the adjustment value of flexible resources have not yet been reasonably reflected, and the cost of ancillary services needs to be adjusted.